The article considers the risks that may change the epidemic situation regarding leishmaniasis in Ukraine.

The aim of the work was to substantiate the forecast of epidemic complications of leishmaniasis in Ukraine based on the analysis of migration processes, environmental changes and the state of readiness of the healthcare system. Materials and methods. The method of systematic analysis of epidemiological data of the World Health Organization and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control for the period 2022–2025, the Ministry of Health of Ukraine (2003–2025) was used. and methods of a comprehensive epidemiological research method to predict possible risks of epidemic complications of leishmaniasis in Ukraine in modern war conditions. Results. It was established that the mass external migration of people and animals, caused by military-political factors, in combination with global warming, creates conditions for the establishment of Leishmania pathogens in the country. The role of mosquitoes of the genus Phlebotomus as specific vectors was analyzed and the need to implement a monitoring system for imported cases was substantiated. Conclusions. Due to the lack of reliable information on leishmaniasis, it is not possible to realistically assess the intensity of the epidemic process in Ukraine. A number of risks, which are currently associated with war, climate change creates favorable conditions for the formation of epidemic foci of this disease. It is necessary to improve the hospital, zooenthomological, socio-ecological blocks of epidemiological surveillance for leishmaniasis in Ukraine.

Ключові слова: лейшманіоз, зовнішня міграція, трансмісивні хвороби, Phlebotomus, прогнозування, кліматичні зміни

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